Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of Russian despot Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, after Moscow’s military forces took control of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014. When he launched his “special military operation†in 2022, Putin expected his tanks to roll into Kyiv within days, a proof of concept for his vision of a reconstituted Soviet Union.

As the months dragged on and the offensive failed spectacularly some optimistic observers began predicting Ukraine would win decisively, and perhaps even push into Russia. The truth is somewhere in the middle: Ukrainian forces have fought resolutely against a much larger adversary but are worn down and on their back foot. The Russians have just taken the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka.

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