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Filings for unemployment benefits are considered a proxy for U.S. layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job market.

The Iran war, now in its ninth week, has injected a large degree of uncertainty about how it will affect the U.S. and global economies even as Iran and the U.S. remain under a ceasefire agreement.

U.S. financial markets have and prices for a barrel of U.S. crude oil remain elevated around $104 per barrel. That’s better than the $112 earlier this month, but still 50% higher than before the war began. Gas prices also much higher since the war began — AAA says the national average Thursday was at $4.30 a gallon —- saddling businesses and consumers with higher costs.

The largest monthly jump in gas prices in six decades sent from a year earlier, the Labor Department recently reported. That’s up sharply from just 2.4% in February and the biggest yearly increase since May 2024. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.9% in March from February, the largest such increase in nearly four years.

This comes at a time when U.S. inflation was already above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. On Wednesday, the Fed opted to leave its benchmark rate where it was, citing economic uncertainty caused by instability in the Middle East and persistently high inflation.

Lower interest rates can boost the economy and hiring, but also tend to fuel inflation.

Fed officials voted to cut rates three times to close 2025 out of concern for a weakening job market.

The Labor Department reported earlier this month that U.S. employers added an unexpectedly in March, nudging the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. That followed a surprisingly large loss . Revisions also have trimmed 69,000 jobs from December and January payrolls, a sign that the labor market remains .

A number of high-profile companies have cut jobs recently, including , S, and several other tech companies.

Weekly jobless aid applications have stabilized in a range mostly between 200,000 and 250,000 since the U.S. economy emerged from the pandemic recession. However, hiring began slowing about two years ago and tapered further in 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff rollouts, his purge of the federal workforce and the lingering effects of high interest rates meant to control inflation.

Employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs last year, compared with about 1.5 million in 2024, according to the data firm FactSet.

The American labor market appears stuck in what economists call a state that has kept the unemployment rate historically low, but has left those out of work struggling to find a new job. The recent artificial intelligence boom and the investment required to develop it is also making companies reluctant to hire.

The Labor Department’s report Thursday showed that the four-week moving average of jobless claims, which evens out some of the weekly volatility, came in at 207,500, about 3,500 lower than the previous week.

The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending April 18 fell to 1.79 million, a decrease of 23,000.